The index declined to 124.2 in the fourth quarter, down 12.5 points from the previous quarter, with all 10 components falling. The index is presented by RSM US in partnership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “This slowdown underscores our estimation of a 65 percent probability of a recession over the next 12 months, and we think the lagging impact of interest rate hikes which have already resulted in significant financial tightening,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US, said in a prepared statement. The survey showed respondents reporting revenue reduction rose to 29 percent from 19 percent, while a drop in profits was reported by 33 percent, up from 24 percent the prior quarter. Those who cut jobs rose to 14.1 percent from 6.5 percent. Slightly more than half plan to increase hiring over the next six months, the lowest rate since mid-2020. However, pricing pressure declined from the third quarter to the fourth with 53 percent of respondents noting increased prices in the fourth quarter down from 69 in previous quarter. About 50 percent intend to increase capital expenditures over the next six months, following eight straight quarters in which a majority had such plans.